In Part 1, we built our 1st down call sheet. In Part 2, we built our 2nd down call sheet and made sure to force Y-Leak on it, because it’s been a rough couple of years and we deserve happiness.
I bet you can’t guess what this part is about. That’s right! 3rd and 4th down! As you progress through the downs, there are naturally fewer times needed. After all, to even get to 3rd down, you need to get through 1st & 2nd first. The Packers have dialed up passing plays 127 times on 2nd down. On 3rd & 4th down combined? They’ve passed on 117.
So we’re combining 3rd & 4th down because, functionally, they’re the same when dialing them up. Sure, there’s a conversation to be had about situational football and calling something on 3rd down with the purpose of going for it on 4th, but, really, there’s not a huge difference on the call sheet.
So here we go.
3rd/4th & Short (1-2)
Stick
Average times run: 0.3
Average yards: 6.7
Completion%: 66.7
When you desperately need a few yards, it’s hard to go wrong with Stick. Nice, simple concept. It’s a three-step drop, so you’re not in any real danger of having the pass rush get to you. It’s a throw to the outside, so you’re not in any real danger of having a defensive lineman read your eyes and bat it down. There’s a vertical route on the outside that works as a shot and also as a boundary clear-out. And there’s a follow aspect to it, so you can read the defense and throw to the route that is most open.
There’s nothing sexy about it, but it’s a good, solid concept and Rodgers is good at executing it.
Sprint Out
Average times run: 0.1
Average yards: 2.0
Completion%: 100.0
Sometimes you don’t overthink things. You’ve got Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Rodgers sprints to the outside, Adams gets outside leverage, and you just do that. They’ve only done it once this season on this down & distance. It’s not going to spring for a huge play, but it doesn’t need to. Keep the chains moving, refresh the downs and keep the drive rolling.
3rd/4th & Medium (3-7)
Dagger
Average times run: 0.6
Average yards: 14.8
Completion%: 66.7
A solid concept on any down and distance, and this is no different. It has really treated the Packers well here. Get MVS in the slot to really threaten the safeties and you’ll either have a nice opportunity on a shot or some room in the middle for the X to operate.
Smash Fade
Average times run: 0.1
Average yards: 42.0
Completion%: 100.0
In Part 2 I talked about how the rise of two-high defenses has seen a resurgence in the use of Smash as opposed to Smash Fade. But that doesn’t mean Smash Fade is dead. Far from it. Against single-high defenses - and with Rodgers slinging - it’s just as lethal as it has ever been. It’s just something that you can’t really throw against two-high, because you have a safety capping the vertical route.
Double-China (Dusty)
Average times run: 0.2
Average yards: 13.0
Completion%: 100.0
Listen man. I’ve heard this called Dusty. I’ve seen references in playbooks to this being called Dusty. I didn’t make it up. As a Packers fan, I immediately think of TD #2 to Jennings in the Super Bowl when I think of this play.
The Packers have only run this concept twice this year, and they have only run it on this down & distance. So it’s an extremely small sample size, but it has served them well…even if it did depend on an absolutely ridiculous pitch-and-catch from Rodgers and MVS.
Scissors
Average times run: 0.3
Average yards: 11.00
Completion%: 100.0
Listen man. If you’re facing 3rd/4th and needing 3-7 yards to get a 1st down and you’re sitting on a concept that is picking up 11 yards a pop on 100% completion, you do that. It’s a lovely concept that works well against two-high alignments because it puts the safety to the concept side in conflict on the switch. And if he doesn’t bite? That’s okay, because you have a RB in space underneath it.
Dragon (Double)
Average times run: 0.5
Average yards: 6.8
Completion%: 50.0
Alright, so the completion % is a little dicey, but I’m still taking my chances with this one here. Partly because I think it’s legally obligated to run this play in Green Bay, but also because I like the potential, particularly with the personnel. A follow-slant concept (featuring Davante Adams on a slant) combined with Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon on the flat? I’m in.
For this exercise, we’re following the numbers and allowing them to tell us where to go. But for some of these? The sample size is fairly small and I have a tendency to lean on tried-and-true concepts that I know the Packers can successfully run. Sure, 4 verts had a better average yardage on this down & distance than Dragon (with 4 verts sporting a gaudy 54 yards per play), but it was only run once in this situation and hasn’t done well overall. So I’ll stick with Dragon here.
3rd/4th & Long (8+)
Dagger
Average times run: 0.4
Average yards: 8.8
Completion%: 75.0
Alright, so I’m spamming Dagger. You know why? Because it works. With 3rd/4th & long, we’re looking for something that is a consistent concept that will allow us to push the ball a bit. And Dagger is certainly that.
Arches
Average times run: 0.1
Average yards: 17.0
Completion%: 100.0
I’m a sucker for a good follow concept, and Arches is certainly that. If you want to mix it up - and I do - you can have that angle route fire from the backfield. Get the drag to move the LBs, then bring a delayed angle route into the empty space behind it. It has only been used by the Packers once this year, but the idea of solid and I’d very much like to see more of it.
All Go RB Seam
Average times run: 0.2
Average yards: 8.0
Completion%: 100.0
I talked about this one in Part 2 so I don’t need to get too deep into it here. Good concept and the Packers have found decent success with it here, so it’s going on the call sheet in this section.
And that’s it for building our call sheet by down! We’ve got one more to go: building our red zone call sheet.