Building a Game Plan, Part 2

or, slinging on 2nd down

In Part 1, we started building the Packers call sheet for 1st down throws, based on their success with those concepts in 2021. In this part, we start to build our 2nd down call sheet based on down & distance, focusing on the successful concepts in those areas.

As a reminder, here are the down & distance situations and how often the Packers passed in those situations:

Football Outsiders defines success rate on 2nd down as any play that gains 60% of the needed yardage to convert a 1st down. So we’ll keep that in mind as we go forward.

Alright man. Let’s get to it.

2nd & Short (1-2 yards)

Jet Post/Wheel

Average times run: NA
Average yards: NA
Completion%: NA

The Packers passing dropbacks on 2nd & short have been grim, man. They didn’t do it a lot, but when they did it was rough. So I’m going with something they didn’t run at all in this down & distance so far this year, because it couldn’t possibly be worse.

It is based off a look we’ve seen from them in different situations, though. They’ve been releasing the jet man up the sideline on a wheel route on occasion this season. There has been at least one instance where he looked to be flashing open for a potential big gain, but the ball went elsewhere. So this is what I’m looking for.

We’re running this out of a balanced look, so the jet motion plays with the defensive rules when looking at the strength of the formation. We’re parking Davante Adams on the backside slant, so that’s an easy option if the defensive look is right. Could be a pre-snap read for Rodgers: three-steps and look to throw, assuming Adams beats his man (he will). If they slide another defender under the slant, look elsewhere.

On the concept side, we’ve got a post/wheel combo, with the wheel coming from the jet motion man. If the defense is sleeping and looking for the jet man to settle into the flat - a perfectly common action after completing the jet motion - you’ve got a big play up the sideline.

If all else fails, you’ve got a late TE release off the end of the line.

2nd & Medium (3-7)

All Go RB Seam

Average times run: 0.5
Average yards: 11.6
Completion%: 80%

One of my favorite concepts. The big plays haven’t been a common occurrence with this concept over the last couple of years, but it’s a decent yard-gainer, and the big play ability is always there, just waiting to emerge. More often than not, this turns into a checkdown, but it’s a checkdown in space. Either that or Rodgers hits Adams on the backside slant as the #1 option. Either way, this concept has been the most effective in this down & distance, so it leads us off.

Curl/Flat

Average times run: 0.1
Average yards: 8.0
Completion%: 100.0%

The Packers only ran this once in this down & distance look in 2021, but the pickings are a bit slim here, and this is a good, sound concept. Rodgers is 5/6 on the concept across all down & distance this year & it’s averaging 6.7 yards. Pretty much an automatic play and if it doesn’t pick up the 1st down, it’ll put you in a real nice spot for 3rd down.

Switch Vert

Average times run: 0.2
Average yards: 8.0
Completion%: 100.0%

Another one that the Packers haven’t run a ton, but they’ve been successful when they have. It has the ability to confuse the back end of the defense, but so far the ball has gone to the running back both times. And that’s fine, because he has plenty of room to work.

It’s worth noting that this is a pretty recent addition to the Packers arsenal. The first time I saw them running it this year was in week 9. For full transparency, I group this different than the Scissors concept. In Scissors, each receiver runs his own vertical stem before crossing over on the route break. On this concept, they kind of merge together and run the same stem. A small distinction maybe, but one I’m making.

Spot/Snag

Average times run: 0.1
Average yards: 6.5
Completion%: 100.0%

Once again, the Packers don’t run this a ton in this down & distance, but it’s a solid-if-unspectacular concept that will pick you up a few yards in a pinch. Rodgers is 5/7 on this concept this year, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt (3/3 for 5.7 yards on all 2nd down distances). Again, not eye-popping, but Rodgers knows what he’s doing with quick-game. Sometimes you just need a gimme, and this is a gimme in this situation.

2nd & Long (8+)

Y-Leak

Average times run: NA
Average yards: NA
Completion%: NA

I’ve been waiting on this one, man. I feel like I’ve been patient, but my patience is wearing thin. Y-Leak is beautiful and it can be a big gainer. The Rams hit a 40+ yard gain on it last weekend.

It plays off the PA Boot concept and can kill a team that doesn’t pass it off correctly in the middle. With teams keying in on stopping PA Boot and the Packers using more half-boot concepts to combat that, I feel like it’s only a matter of time before Y-Leak finally gets its day in the Green Bay sun. Some really nice big play potential off play action, in a situation where the defense may be looking for a run.

Portland

Average times run: 0.2
Average yards: 28.5
Completion%: 100%

I covered Portland in Part 1, but we’re bringing it back here. By average yards, this is the most successful down & distance for this concept.

Smash/China

Average times run: 0.3
Average yards: 24.7
Completion%: 100%

Smash is an old West Coast concept. Its more recent variant - Smash Fade - had been rising in popularity, but Smash has been making a comeback due to the rise of two-high coverages.

The Packers have run this concept on this down & distance more than they have in any other, and they’ve had nice success with it. No reason to shut it down now.

Drift

Average times run: 0.3
Average yards: 14.0
Completion%: 100%

We also covered this one in Part 1 but we’re bringing it back.

It plays off the action of the Wide Zone run & PA Boot, both things the Packers use a lot. Get the defense crashing & hit the area in the middle. Extremely successful concept on this down & distance.

RPO (Bubble Constraint)

Average times run: 0.1
Average yards: 9.0
Completion%: 100%

Okay, so they’ve only run this once - against the Rams - but it’s my call sheet and this play was terrific, so I’m building it in.

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Coming up shortly: our 3rd down call sheet.