The Future of the Packers Offense

or, we're still a ways away

I was recently a guest on Tyler Brooke’s YouTube channel - which you should all subscribe to as soon as possible - where we talked about what we may be able to expect from the Packers offense in 2023. In case you haven’t heard, there’s a new QB at the helm, so naturally questions have been raised. We had a really fun chat around some broad thoughts on the offense, then dug into a few clips. It’s well worth your time. (Also, again, subscribe to Tyler’s YouTube channel.)

The overall takeaway is that I don’t anticipate the offense changing that much, but I will be looking for a few changes. Those changes mainly revolve around some concepts that target the middle of the field a bit more (something that Rodgers absolutely didn’t do much of) and using more post-snap RPOs.

Because this Substack has been fairly dormant during the offseason - and also because I am pretty lazy - I thought I’d throw those plays into a post.

So let’s do it.

First things first: what do I think the Packers offense will look like in 2023?

The short answer: largely the same. Offenses will change and evolve every season as a necessity, so the offense we see in 2023 will not be the same offense we saw in 2022, but that would be the case regardless as to who is under center.

Still, a change in QBs will likely necessitate a relatively larger change. A team is not going to entirely scrap their entire offensive approach simply because they have a new QB. It’s tough to put a number on it, but I’d say 80%-90% of the offense will look like the offense we’ve seen over the past couple of years.

But there will be changes. Every offense with a QB that the coaching staff believes in will cater to that QB to a certain extent. Since he is the man running the offense, they’ll naturally want to run things he is most comfortable with. When thinking about how the Packers offense might look different without Aaron Rodgers, my mind immediately went to two things he clearly did not like: post-snap RPOs and throwing to the middle of the field

Let’s start with the RPO game. There are two types of RPOs: pre-snap and post-snap. The Packers predominantly ran pre-snap RPOs with Rodgers. Those revolve around a running concept paired with a horizontal passing concept - a WR Bubble or WR Screen - and the QB reads it based on the numbers advantage before the snap. If the offense has more of their guys to the passing side than the defense, they’ll throw it. If the numbers are even, they’ll run it.

Rodgers, however, did not like the post-snap variety. That revolves around reading a “constraint” defender and making a decision to run or pass based on his movement. If he is part of the run fit, throw the pass behind him. If he falls under the receiver, hand it off.

Jordan Love didn’t do a ton of this in college, but he does have at least a little experience with it. Beyond that, LaFleur put this concept into the Packers playbook more in 2022 than he had previously, so it’s something I think he wants to do.

Another thing I’ll briefly touch on is the run-blocking itself. As we saw in the above clip, the Packers are pulling some linemen. That’s something they did early in the season, but largely scrapped as the season went along in favor of some more wide zone/power hybrid looks. That was largely due to the moving pieces and inconsistency along the offensive line. I expect to see some more power run looks from the running game in this coming year. It seems like something LaFleur would like to do, and the line feels a little more settled coming into 2023.

The rest of the clips revolve around throwing to the middle of the field. Because there are some beautiful play designs that revolve around the middle of the field.

First up is a passing concept that has been around since the dawn of time. It’s a two-man concept called Drive, and it is intended to attack the middle of the field by giving the QB a high-low read on the linebackers. (Those two receivers are Z and Y in the below playbook shot.)

One of the things I love about Drive is that it’s a simple concept, but you can dress it up in some extremely dangerous ways. Here’s a clip from the 2022 University of Kentucky offense.

They’re dressing it up with a lot of misdirection, but the core concept is Drive. It’s something I expect the Packers to trot out a little more this year.

In keeping with that theme, another concept I’m looking for is one that is referred to as Arches or H-Post.

The core idea is a two-man concept: a clear-out drag from the inside and a follow route from the outside. The above screenshot is from a Kyle Shanahan 49ers playbook. The drag - or “Eliminator” - can move the LBs, while the “Arches” will initially push outside to move the defender, then move to the middle and attack the space created by the “Eliminator”.

This is a clip from the 2017 Patriots offense, and you can see exactly how it works. Clear the middle with the drag, push the boundary defender out then replace the middle.

But it’s not just the Patriots. Again, the playbook page above is from Kyle Shanahan, who Matt LaFleur came up through the ranks with.

Beyond that, we saw LaFleur run this during his one-year stint in Tennessee.

It’s something that attacks the middle of the field and something that LaFleur has a history with? That’s absolutely something I’m going to be looking for.

Lastly, I’ll talk about a concept called Spin. This is the big one for me. The Packers didn’t run this with Rodgers, but they ran it 3 times with Jordan Love in his short stint against the Eagles. That tells me that it is in the playbook and it’s something that Love is comfortable with.

It’s a two-man concept, involving a hitch route from the inside and a dig route that wraps around the top.

It is - again - designed to attack the middle of the field. The idea is for the hitch route to pin down the defender, then have the dig route attack the space created by that.

Those are the first two reps of this concept against the Eagles. When they tried to run it a third time, the Eagles rotated a safety to take it away. Love recognized it and knew the answer to that problem, transitioning his footwork from 3-step to 5-step and throwing to the underneath route on the other side of the field.

To me, that shows Love’s comfort with this concept. He can read how the defense is reacting and find answers to that problem.

And there you have it. A brief rundown of my overall thoughts on the Packers offense in 2023, along with some concepts I anticipate seeing with Love as QB.

I’m really looking forward to the season to see how this all shakes out, but, for now, I’m having fun with some wild speculation. Hope you all are as well.