Setting up your shot

or, Running yourself to pass

There was a really fun 5 play sequence near the end of the Packers/Steelers game and I wanted to point it out. Because I am a fun person and I like fun things.

Let’s set the stage. The Steelers just had a turnover on downs, because it was 4th & 5 and Roethlisberger can’t throw that far with any kind of accuracy. The Packers took over the ball at their own 45 yard line, ahead by a score of 27-10 with 10:05 remaining in the 4th quarter. As you may have heard, the Packers spent a 2nd round pick on a thick-quadded running back in 2020. If ever there was a time to roll him out to drive into the line to kill time, this is it. (Is quadded right? It sounds right but it doesn’t look right.)

Play 1: 1st & 10

The Packers come out in 13 personnel, with all 3 tight ends on the left side. Davante Adams is the lone WR and AJ Dillon is the single RB in the backfield. They run to the middle and pick up 5 yards.

We’re keeping an eye on the widest defender to the TE side. You know. For science.

Play 2: 2nd & 5

The formation has flipped, but same 13 personnel and same alignment. Dillon runs behind the blocking on the right side and picks up 4 yards.

Play 3: 3rd & 1

You already knowwwwwwwwwwwwww. 13 personnel, same alignment. With it being short yardage and Dillon being a massive human, he puts his head down and powers through for a gain of 5.

When this play started, there was 8:37 left in the game. The defense is starting to react. That boundary defender on the TE side? He’s triggering a little quicker on the edge.

Play 4: 1st & 10

Same 13 personnel, same alignment. Dillon finds a hole behind the TE side and churns for 6 yards.

The boundary defender seems to be barely keying on blocks at this point. He’s looking at the path of Dillon. Which leads to…

Play 5: 2nd & 4

There is now 7:11 remaining on the clock. The Packers have burned nearly 3 minutes simply by rolling out a heavy look and having Dillon smash his face and beautiful legs into the line. The defense is frustrated and desperate for a stop. Matt LaFleur senses blood in the water.

Same 13 personnel, same alignment. The initial movement from the TE side is the same: they’re blocking down. With no one over Robert Tonyan on the outside, he’s looking to block the second-level. He sneaks toward that assignment, then takes off down the field.

It’s a trick! A sneaky trick!

With the boundary defender leaning in - due in no small part to the defense giving up 20 yards in the last 4 plays on the same look - Tonyan gets a nice release down the field. And he’s open! Wide open!

Unfortunately, Rodgers misses him. A rare underthrow on a perfectly set-up shot opportunity.

I know some people had an issue with them opting to throw the ball, but that’s really because some people have an issue with every single play call. But the set-up and timing of this call was tremendous. A lot of times you’ll see a shot set up over the course of a game, or even over the course of a season. It’s fun to see how a shot can immediately tie to the plays directly before it. I have absolutely no issue with the call: I just wish the throw was better.

Process over results, right?