As I’m sure you are all very much aware, the Packers and 49ers play against each other in a playoff game! This weekend!
Since the Packers had a bye during the Wild Card Round (I hear they had a good season or something), I didn’t have any Packers stuff to look at. But the 49ers? I got a chance to dive in a bit.
My initial goal was to provide a scouting report from the Packers offensive perspective. Where/how to attack the 49ers based on their tendencies, then look at what concepts the Packers could trot out to do that. Dig into some advanced numbers and really dig into where this game is likely to be decided.
And sure, maybe I’ll still do that. I still have a whole day. But life got a little busy on me and I didn’t get a chance to dig in the way I wanted to. Instead, I picked out some plays from the 49ers win over the Cowboys and looked at them a bit. I basically just looked at them through a lens of, “What were the key components to this play? What are both sides doing?” From what, we can extrapolate a bit how this could inform the game this weekend.
Play 1
We’re going to start with a play from the 49ers defense, because it’s something that looks familiar to the way the Packers like to attack. The 49ers are showing a single-high safety and the Cowboys counter with a Smash Fade concept.
The entire time I was watching this play, all I could think of was this:
Play 2
As I mention in the video, I am legally required to talk about Leak whenever I see it. The 49ers trotted out this concept against the Cowboys and it went…poorly. I wanted to walk through it because it helps to highlight a weakness that the Packers could potentially exploit.
Play 3
I really like this play from the 49ers. They take Drive - an old West Coast concept - and delay the releases a bit, while also tacking on a potential shot off an Arches variation.
What does all that mean? Watch the video!
The 49ers get real tricky with their misdirections and variations. So much looks the same, right up until the moment it doesn’t. Packers are going to need good eyes and discipline this weekend.
Play 4
Speaking of discipline, here’s another good example of how things can go if the defensive structure breaks down. The 49ers are running a sweep with Deebo Samuel in the backfield (one of his 13 snaps from the backfield against the Cowboys). The edge is taken away, so Samuel is forced to cut back. I wanted to highlight what can happen if even one player is not where he is supposed to be.
I’m confident that the Packers offense is going to put up points, and I believe that the defense will do enough to tamp down the 49ers rushing game that they’ll be able to force Jimmy Garoppolo to throw more than he may like. To do that, they’ll need discipline across the entire defense. If they do that, they’ll cruise to a win.
Even if they don’t - even if they have a few busts - the Packers will still win this game. They just need to keep those busts to a minimum.