I’ve been away from this space for a while, but I’ve been busy. I swear. Sure, I went through Reacher, started season 2 of The Righteous Gemstones and am on my way through another rewatch of What We Do in the Shadows, but I’ve been doing football things, too!
On top of buckling down and learning about special teams, I’ve also been engaging in some real cool-guy stuff:
Without getting too deep into it, this signifies a pretty big step-up for me, allowing for a much easier way to watch & analyze film by play type, concept, down/distance, red zone area, etc. I’m still working through some tagging, but it’s going to be really nice once I get it where I want it.
Which leads us to today. We all know how the Packers season ended. In fact, by now, we’re all well-versed in the final throw from Aaron Rodgers on the season: a “hero throw” to Davante Adams on 3rd & long into double-coverage. A throw that never had a chance. I reviewed it shortly after the game, but, after going back through the 2021 season, I had one more thing to say about it. Just for review, here’s the play:
Alright, so what’s the concept? Well, if you know me, it’s one you should be familiar with. The base concept is an old West Coast play: Fox 2 XY Hook.
It was originally created as a ball control passing concept. The post from the Z is an Alert - only to be thrown if conditions are perfect - while the real connection lives with the deep hook routes. Get the safeties back on their heels, get the linebackers creeping up on the shallow releases, then throw a hook. Ball control.
Guys like Spurrier and Favre took this concept and said, “Well, I’m just going to look to throw the post every time.” Spurrier turned the Y into a dig route, had the X & Y push hard to draw the safeties up, then hit them over the top on the post. Spurrier found great success with this during his days with the Gators, and Ernie Mills found great success running the post on this concept. Today, this concept is lovingly referred to as Mills.
As I mentioned earlier, Portland is an offshoot of Mills. Same general idea, but the dig comes from the side opposite of the post.
Against the 49ers, the Packers combined a deep corner route with the dig, making for a Dagger/Wasp look, then had Davante Adams running the skinny post from the right side. The 49ers are showing a split safety look pre-snap, which would work nicely with this, since the post would split the middle.
The coverage changes post-snap, with Jimmie Ward [1] screaming down at the line on a safety blitz and Talanoa Hufanga [29] dropping out from his spot in the middle to work as the inside bracket on Adams. When Rodgers hits the top of his drop, Hufanga is over the top of Adams, giving Adams no chance to break free.
As I detailed in my video, Rodgers had time to read the concept on the way back and to move to the second read (which would have been Allen Lazard on the dig), but instead just loaded up and chucked to Adams. A prayer of a throw that never really had a chance to connect.
Maybe it was the constant pressure in the second half and the threat of the safety blitz on his mind. Even though we can see he has time, maybe he didn’t feel like he had time.
Or maybe he had something else in mind.
In week 5 against the Bengals, the Packers were up 19-14 early in the 4th quarter. The Bengals were in a split safety look and the Packers dialed up a version of Portland, with Lazard running a hook from the left and Adams running a skinny post from the right.
The Packers run play action, and Jessie Bates III [30] shuffles forward a couple steps from his deep safety position, while Vonn Bell [24] backpedals with his attention on a furiously approaching Lazard.
When Rodgers pulls the ball out and sets to throw, Lazard is just starting to break, so Bell is still tied up with him. Bates is sprinting to get back into position. He’s deeper than Adams at this point, but he has no idea where the ball is: he’s just trying to recover. Chidobe Awuzie [22] is playing outside leverage on Adams, expecting help on the inside. But we already know what Rodgers knows: there’s no help, so just chuck that sucker.
Maybe Rodgers didn’t realize Hufanga was deeper in the Divisional Round than Bates was in week 5. There’s no play action this time - because it was 3rd & long and the 49ers made a point to shut it down all day - but maybe he thought he just needed to lay it up over the top and everything would be beautiful.