A Makeshift Mailbag

or, hello from the outside

I haven’t haunted this space since the end of the season. There are quite a few reasons for that, but I don’t want to bore you. I want to get back into posting some little things here, so be on the lookout for random clips and numbers from the 2023 Packers season.

For now, to fire up the machine, let’s do a mini mailbag. I put out a call on Twitter and got a handful of responses back (plus some I’m stealing from a response to an episode of Pack-A-Day I was on), so let’s roll through some of those.

We’ll start with a question from Duke St. Aubin (I knew a St. Aubin once. Lovely person.)

The injury to Musgrave allowed Kraft to get more snaps in year 1 than he would have. Going into year 2 how do you feel this has established or advanced the Packers in this position had Musgrave not been injured? We now have two respected TEs that shape the offense with great depth and balance for the WR core.

Great question. I certainly have talked a lot about how Tucker Kraft looked early in the season, but let’s get it out here, anyway. In short, there were times when Kraft looked unplayable, especially in terms of his blocking. It wasn’t an issue with effort, but one of processing. When the picture wasn’t super clean, you could see him thinking about it too much. “I’m supposed to block this guy but if he doesn’t rush do I look inside or outside?” He’d have steps of hesitation and miss blocks or take bad angles as a result.

This isn’t a knock on Kraft. The transition from college to the NFL is extremely difficult for the TE position. On top of that, it’s not like the Packers were humming on all cylinders early in the season as a whole. But those struggled were apparent with Kraft, as was expected.

To your point, part of that likely had to do with how little he was seeing the field. You can practice all day, but playing a game is different. Luke Musgrave got injured in the Chargers game in Week 11. From Weeks 1-11, Kraft was playing 31.6% of snaps and had an average PFF grade of 52.4. (PFF grades certainly are not the end-all be-all, but I do tend to agree with them more often than not. If nothing else, it makes for a measurable data point.)

From Weeks 12-18, Kraft was on the field for 92.9% of snaps and had an average PFF grade of 67.4. It’s not quite as easy as saying “Kraft played better because he saw the field more,” but the additional snaps certainly didn’t hurt. He had been playing better in the few games leading up to Musgrave’s injury, so it’s possible the added snaps didn’t improve his play as much as he just settled into the week-to-week and got more comfortable with the playbook, but I believe being a bigger part of the offense helped with his improvement, and should pay off next year.

Here’s one from Quintin:

As you’ve been looking back on 2023 Packers offensive film, are there any things that jump out to you or that get you excited about how we could possibly be expanding our TE usage with Musgrave and Kraft? The WRs have been a big part of the offseason discussion so far, but haven’t seen much at the TE spot.

Tight ends are at the forefront of a lot of people’s minds, it seems. That’s something I’m really curious about. The Packers ran their offense out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on 63% of snaps. Per SumerSports, that puts them at 18th in the league in 11 personnel usage. Their second highest personnel grouping usage was 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at 32.2%. If you want to get both TEs on the field more, you would need to need an uptick in 12 personnel, but the Packers already ranked 3rd in the league in 12 personnel usage in 2023 (the Patriots were 2nd at 38.9% and the Falcons were 1st at 41.8%).

While I could see them pushing that number a little higher, I don’t know that I see them pushing it too much higher. There are certainly some fun things you can do with Musgrave and Kraft on the field at the same time, but it limits your downfield passing game if you lean on it too much. I think the move is to stay around that 32% number, but split the snaps a little more evenly to keep them fresh.

As far as what I’m excited about, I think both Musgrave and Kraft have already shown what they can bring to the offense, so I’m excited to see how they continue to work their skillsets into this offense. We knew Musgrave had the ability to be the seam-stretching tight end - and we certainly saw that - but he was also a much better blocker from day 1 than I thought he would be. I assumed he would be a big slot and would spend a lot of time split out, but that wasn’t the case. He was lined-up in-line on 64.1% of his snaps (per PFF) and he acquitted himself well there.

By the end of the season, Kraft was looking like the guy I hoped he would be: an absolute mauler as a blocker and someone who was hard to bring down after the catch. Boy, was he ever. I don’t know that there’s anything in this world Tucker Kraft hates more than being tackled. He also had a really nice feel in the pass game, both in terms of knowing where the sticks were and also knowing when to sit down in zone vs. run away in man. I would like to talk him out of hurdling people as much as he did, but I also don’t ever want him to stop being who he is.

Big fan of these two guys and I can’t wait to see them this season.

From Dustin Wanless (awesome first name. the last name is also fine):

Why is it that teams need a big receiver, fast receiver, possession guy, route guy, etc. … why not like 4 route guys or 4 fast guys? Then defenses can’t match up with all of them at their skill sets.

This was a fun thought experiment. I drew up some plays around an offense that was all speed or all possession, then just kinda sat for a bit to see if that would work.

Ultimately, it comes down to what else can those guys do. Four speed receivers seem like a lot of fun, but what else can they do? In my mind, I was picturing 4 receivers that are essentially MVS in terms of linear speed.

If they can only run fast, you’re pretty limited in what you can run. You can stretch the field vertically, but the horizontal game falls by the wayside, specifically in the short portion of the field. You even lose some effectiveness with jet sweep motion, as a man who is only fast (but not super twitchy) isn’t a huge threat with the ball in his hands in the flat, so defenses don’t have to crash on that.

With 4 speed guys, we’re pure Air Coryell and no ability to pivot. Lots of 7 step drops and bombs. Which sounds fun, but defenses can counter a one-dimensional offense. Teams will drop back linebackers, throw 3 safeties over the roof and call it a day.

On the other side, we have 4 route/possession guys. Where the fast receivers only allow you for a vertical stretch, the possession guys only allow you for a horizontal stretch. Sure, those guys can get loose occasionally - Davante wasn’t a burner but his footwork off the line allowed him to win quickly and get vertical - but it’s not something you can base your offense around.

Where the fast receivers were Air Coryell, the possession guys are pure West Coast. You can have success here, but we’re looking at a series of 3-and-5 step drops and absolute precision, with very few explosives. Just like the speed guys, you can try to live this way, but defenses will drop down the safeties to compress the short-to-intermediate portions of the field and squeeze the life out of you. Hard to find throwing lanes when a single-high safety is playing 12 yards off the line and the middle of the field is filled with traffic.

For a defense it’s not about matching up with everyone individually at that point. If a team can basically do one thing through the air, defenses can create a gameplan to account for that.

From William Hrasky:

Based on what you’ve watched in terms of Love’s recognizing coverage and the way LaFleur calls the plays is there any reason to doubt that Love will get better?

There’s always a doubt, but Love showed a lot of very good things. We all know that Love wasn’t a finished project coming out of college. His offense was a static, shotgun spread offense that didn’t rely on timing or even traditional reads. He would have a tendency to lock onto receivers and not check the backside, causing him to throw his share of trouble-balls into the middle of the field.

When he came in against the Eagles in 2022, he had a command over the offense that showed a lot of growth and gave a glimpse of what he could be. Granted, it was a limited number of snaps, but he went through his reads and knew where to go with the ball if the initial read wasn’t there.

He carried that over into 2023. Even during some of the offensive struggles in the middle of the season, Love’s eyes weren’t the issue. He has gotten very good at seeing what a defense is doing and knowing where his answers are. Eyes and footwork in the pocket have been huge for him.

So I want to say that there’s no doubt he will be better. He can operate in the pocket as well as outside of the pocket. We’ve seen him make throws from all different kinds of platforms and arm angles. We’ve seen him play well against the blitz. If there’s room for improvement, it’s in the quick-game, where he will occasionally be a touch late or leave a ball inside that should be out to the sideline.

I’m curious to see what defenses throw at him this year, but it’s the offseason so I’m gonna be optimistic. LaFleur has fully opened up the playbook and Love has shown that he can operate it at a high level. There are doubts because there will always be doubts, but at this moment, I’m feeling real good about Love’s 2024 season.

Thanks for the questions. Maybe we’ll do this again. Maybe we won’t. It’s all a beauty mystery.

(The image at the top has nothing to do with this mailbag but I needed a preview image.)